Kenya’s exports to the United Kingdom could increase by nearly Sh1.59 billion from next year after the latter’s exit from the 27-member European Union trading bloc in December, a UN trade agency study has projected.
The report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), released on Tuesday, says most developing countries will also gain in post-Brexit trade “if the UK does not increase tariffs or change trade policies.”
Nairobi could potentially grow exports to the UK by 3.851 percent, or Sh1.589 billion, over 2015 pre-Brexit value when earnings stood at Sh41.27 billion — Kenya’s highest earnings ever since.
Unctad had early last year predicted that Kenya would lose Sh2 billion in case of a no-deal Brexit. But in December last year, British Parliament endorsed a Brexit deal secured by Premier Boris Johnson.
The UN trade agency now postulates that trade barriers between the UK and the 27-member EU after December will result in some suppliers ordering goods directly from developing countries such as Kenya.
Kenya’s post-Brexit exports tipped to hit Sh42.8 billion